BTC-Cockpit
Bitcoin price analysis at a glance
Return grouped by calendar day, month and year, as bar charts — gains and losses color-coded. The date range below is freely adjustable.
Overview
Best & worst period
Best possible trading
Average return in the selected range
These figures use the compounded rate (geometric mean) — the constant per-day/month/year rate that actually compounds to the observed total return over the whole range. This also applies to the day-of-month and month bar charts below. For ranges under a month or a year, the monthly/yearly figure is left blank (–) since extrapolating from that short a base wouldn’t be meaningful.
By calendar day of month (1–31) — net average return (compounded)
By month (Jan–Dec) — net average return (compounded)
By year — total return
By year in detail — actual monthly return, one chart per year
Power law model
Log-log regression of the BTC price against days since the genesis block (2009-01-03). The trend line and σ bands are always computed from the entire price history; the displayed time axis follows the range selected above. The σ bands mark the standard deviation of the residuals around the trend line — red is above, green is below fair value.
Dashed = projection, not a forecast.
What does σ (sigma) mean? — explained simply
Imagine a trampoline. In the middle there’s an invisible spring — that’s the grey line. The spring keeps pulling the Bitcoin price back toward it. But the price (the gold line) often bounces far away: sometimes way up (then Bitcoin is expensive right now, green), sometimes way down (then it’s cheap, red). Sigma simply tells you: how FAR has the price bounced away from the spring right now? 0σ means: right at the spring. 1σ means: a little bit away. 5σ means: really, really far away — that only happens very rarely!
Historical pattern near the current σ level (purely descriptive, not a forecast): among all past trading days whose σ reading was within ±0.5σ of today’s, this shows how the price moved over the following 7 days. These are overlapping daily windows, not independent weeks, so the sample size looks larger than the number of truly independent observations — read this as a rough historical frequency, not a probability. Past patterns are not a guarantee of future returns.
Moving averages
Bitcoin price against its 50-week and 200-week moving averages, derived from the daily close. The 200-week average is often cited as a long-term bear-market floor. Past patterns are not a guarantee of future behavior.